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Growing pains: how risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth

机译:成长的痛苦:风险感知和风险沟通研究如何有助于应对全球人口增长的挑战

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摘要

In 2011 the global human population reached seven billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed nine billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals’ decisions (in households, organizations, Governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this paper examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The paper also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity
机译:2011年,全球人口达到70亿,中等预测表明,到2045年,全球人口将超过90亿。理论和经验观点表明,这种增长可能导致不良事件(例如,粮食短缺,气候变化)的可能性增加等)和/或不良事件的严重性(例如饥荒,自然灾害等)。几位学者认为,全球人口的增长规模以及这种增长在多大程度上增加了不良后果的可能性,将很大程度上取决于个人的决定(家庭,组织,政府等)。鉴于感知到的风险与决策行为之间存在很强的关系,令人惊讶的是,缺乏专门研究人口增长的感知风险以及这些感知如何影响相关决策的实证研究。为了激发这一重要的研究方向,本文研究了全球人口增长可能加剧的主要风险,并借鉴了有关风险感知和交流的经验性工作,以确定未来研究的潜在方向。本文还考虑了个人如何看待人口增长的风险和收益,并有助于更好地理解和解决相关问题。这些问题的答案可以帮助人类更好地管理其在增加婴儿存活率和成人寿命方面持续取得成功的新结果

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